An ensemble approach for the analysis of extreme rainfall under climate change in Naples (Italy)     

Roberta Padulano  Alfredo Reder  Guido Rianna 《水文研究》2019,33(14):2020-2036

In the present paper, an ensemble approach is proposed to estimate possible modifications caused by climate changes in the extreme precipitation regime, with the rain gauge Napoli Servizio Idrografico (Naples, Italy) chosen as test case. The proposed research, focused on the analysis of extremes on the basis of climate model simulations and rainfall observations, is structured in several consecutive steps. In the first step, all the dynamically downscaled EURO‐CORDEX simulations at about 12 km horizontal resolution are collected for the current period 1971–2000 and the future period 2071–2100, for the RCP4.5 and the RCP8.5 concentration scenarios. In the second step, the significance of climate change effects on extreme precipitation is statistically tested by comparing current and future simulated data and bias‐correction is performed by means of a novel approach based on a combination of simple delta change and quantile delta mapping, in compliance with the storm index method. In the third step, two different ensemble models are proposed, accounting for the variabilities given by the use of different climate models and for their hindcast performances. Finally, the ensemble models are used to build novel intensity–duration–frequency curves, and their effects on the early warning system thresholds for the area of interest are evaluated.  相似文献   

一种基于M估计的Robust-ELM滑坡位移预测方法     

高彩云  高宁 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(2):153-157

采用传统ELM算法进行滑坡位移预测时，其网络输出权值由最小二乘估计得出，导致ELM抗差能力较差，从而造成网络训练参数不准确。为此，将M估计与ELM相结合，提出一种基于M估计的Robust-ELM滑坡变形预测方法。该方法利用加权最小二乘方法来取代最小二乘法计算ELM输出权值，以减少滑坡监测数据中粗差对ELM预测的干扰。分别以链子崖、古树屋滑坡体为例，将Robust-ELM进行了单维、多维粗差的抵御性验证。结果表明，该方法能够有效降低粗差对预测的影响，具有良好的抗差能力。  相似文献   

非平稳标准化降水蒸散指数构建及中国未来干旱时空格局   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

温庆志  孙鹏  张强  姚蕊 《地理学报》2020,75(7):1465-1482

旱灾是一种致灾因子与成害机理均非常复杂的自然灾害,也是目前对其检测与风险防御最为困难的自然灾害种类之一。随着全球气候变化,干旱的变化逐渐趋于非平稳化,水文气象序列的非平稳性已有广泛研究,但在干旱检测指标中却鲜有考虑。基于标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）和非平稳性理论,构建非平稳性标准化降水蒸散指数（NSPEI）并进行适用性评价,利用NSPEI评估未来不同排放情景下中国气象干旱时空格局演变规律。结果表明：① 非平稳性站点集中在东北平原、黄淮海平原、长三角地区、青藏高原及周边区域,NSPEI拟合最优的站点占中国气象站点的88%（2177个站点）。② SPEI对温度较为敏感,在评估未来干旱变化时会高估干旱强度和持续时间性,而NSPEI能够克服这一弱点,较SPEI可更好的检测中国气象干旱,且能很好的刻画中国未来干旱变化。③ 低、高排放情景下中国北方干旱加剧,南方呈湿润化趋势;中排放情景下中国北方湿润化趋势明显,而中国南方则呈干旱化。基于NSPEI干旱检测结果,中高排放情景下中国未来极端干湿历时与发生频率均呈增加趋势。  相似文献   

顾及空间非平稳特征的遥感干旱监测     

朱欣然  黄长平  吴波  苏华  焦文哲  张立福 《遥感学报》2019,23(3):487-500

遥感技术具备实时快速、时空连续、广覆盖尺度等独特优势,在全球气候恶化大背景下,利用遥感干旱监测方法相比于传统地面监测手段,能够提供实时、准确、稳定的旱情信息,辅助科学决策。目前常用遥感旱情监测方法大多依赖全域性数学模型建模,假定了旱情模式的空间平稳特性,因而难以准确反映旱情模式的局部差异特征。本文提出利用地理加权回归模型GWR (Geographically Weighted Regression),考虑旱情模式的空间非平稳特性,综合多种遥感地面旱情监测指数,以实现传统全域旱情监测模型的局部优化。以美国大陆为研究区,监测2002年—2011年共10年的旱情状态。研究表明,GWR模型能够提供空间变化的局部最佳估计模型参数,监测结果更加吻合标准美国旱情监测USDM (U.S Drought Monitor)验证数据,且与地面实测值的最高相关系数R达到0.8552,均方根误差RMSE达到0.972,显著优于其他遥感旱情监测模型。GWR模型具备空间非平稳探测优势,实现了旱情模式的局部精细探测,能够显著提升遥感旱情监测精度,具备较好的应用前景。  相似文献   

A geospatial study of the drought impact on surface water reservoirs: study cases from Texas,USA     

Zachary Asbury 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2019,56(6):894-910

Satellite images have been used historically to measure and monitor fluctuations in the surface water reservoirs. This study integrates remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies to investigate the impact of drought on 10 selected surface water reservoirs in San Angelo and Dallas, Texas. Oscillations in summer and winter months throughout the 2005–2016 period were assessed using multispectral images from Landsat-5, ?7, and ?8, and changes in the reservoirs were characterized and correlated against local climate data of each reservoir. For quantitative comparisons of the time-series measurements, a robust density slicing approach was employed to classify the range of values of the raster cells in the near-infrared band of Landsat images for each lake into three desired classes (deep water, shallow water, and dry area) based on the natural breaks inherent in the dataset. Statistical analysis shows that the overall accuracy of the classification is about 94%, which demonstrates the efficiency of the density slicer to accurately estimate surface water area changes from an individual Landsat band. Shrinkage in the surface water area over the study period reveals the concrete impact that the drought along with other factors have on the 10 selected lakes. The San Angelo lakes located in west central Texas experienced a nearly consistent pattern of change during most of the study period; whereas the Dallas lakes in northeast Texas followed the oscillating pattern of drought and correlated closely to the local conditions. Shockingly, the extreme drought caused complete vanishing of several lakes, and consequently Texas had to remove them from its recreational plans. Our new findings can certainly help with the water resource management in Texas and our study approach can be adapted for monitoring lake oscillations in other areas across the world. This geospatial study demonstrates the societal benefits from incorporating remote sensing and GIS in investigating geo-environmental problems associated with severe climate changes.  相似文献   

Characterization of drought in the Kerio Valley Basin,Kenya using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index: 1960−2016     

Peter Kimosop 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2019,40(2):239-256

The Kerio Valley basin in Kenya has undergone several periods of drought, yet drought patterns in the region are not well understood due to limited climatic data. Drought events in the region have resulted in crop failure and livestock deaths, exacerbating food shortages. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a multi‐scalar drought index was used to examine the onset, duration, severity, intensity, and frequency of agricultural and hydrological drought in the region. The gridded 0.5° × 0.5° climatic datasets from Climatic Research Unit for the period 1960?2016 was used for analysis. Temporal evolutions of SPEI at 6‐ and 12‐month lags were subsequently used to evaluate agricultural and hydrological drought, respectively. Additionally, the Mann‐Kendall trend test was used to test for trends in the time series. Results from the analysis show that: 1) droughts are becoming more frequent in the region, 2) drought intensities in the arid and semi‐arid lands have weakened, 3) regions west of the Kerio River have recently recorded a wetting trend, and 4) the southern and central regions of the basin are drought‐prone. Understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of drought in the basin can assist in drought preparation and mitigation planning.  相似文献   

Regional extreme‐dry‐spell frequency analysis using the L‐moments method in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin,China          下载免费PDF全文

Dun‐Xian She  Jun Xia  Dan Zhang  Ai‐Zhong Ye  Aditya Sood 《水文研究》2014,28(17):4694-4707

In this research, the regional extreme‐dry‐spell frequency in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is studied by the L‐moments method. The research area has been divided into three subregions (regions 1, 2 and 3), which have been identified as homogenous regions. The results of a goodness‐of‐fit test indicate that a generalized normal distribution is the optimal regional model for regions 1 and 2 whereas a generalized Pareto distribution is the optimal regional model for region 3. The return period analysis figures out that the maximum length‐of‐dry‐spell (MxDS) values increase from south to north in the southern part and increase from northeast to southwest in the northern part of the middle reaches of the YRB under different return periods. The increments of quantiles of dry spell under different return levels indicate that drought risk in region 1 is higher than that in regions 2 and 3. The analysis of the occurrence day of MxDS shows that MxDS mostly occurred during winter of 1998 and spring of 1999 in most stations during the considered period. By comparing summer MxDS events, it can be found that mean MxDS values have slightly increased in regions 1 and 2 during the last five decades. The maximum mean MxDS values appeared in the 2000s for regions 1 and 2 and in the 1990s for region 3. The atmospheric circulation shows that the positive anomaly centre in the west of North China, negative anomaly centre in the east of North China and the strong western Pacific subtropical high led to the decrease of precipitation in North China during the summer of 1997. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use          下载免费PDF全文

Mingwei Ma  Liliang Ren  Fei Yuan  Shanhu Jiang  Yi Liu  Hao Kong  Luyan Gong 《水文研究》2014,28(23):5645-5661

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analysis of the interannual variability of annual daily extreme water levels in the St Lawrence River and Lake Ontario from 1918 to 2010          下载免费PDF全文

Ali A. Assani  Raphaëlle Landry  Stacey Biron  Jean‐Jacques Frenette 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4011-4022

We compared the interannual variability of annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence River (Sorel station) from 1918 to 2010, using several statistical tests. The interannual variability of annual daily maximum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario is characterized by a positive long‐term trend showing two shifts in mean (1929–1930 and 1942–1943) and a single shift in variance (in 1958–1959). In contrast, for the St Lawrence River, this interannual variability is characterized by a negative long‐term trend with a single shift in mean, which occurred in 1955–1956. As for annual daily minimum extreme water levels, their interannual variability shows no significant long‐term change in trend. However, for Lake Ontario, the interannual variability of these water levels shows two shifts in mean, which are synchronous with those for maximum water levels, and a single shift in variance, which occurred in 1965–1966. These changes in trend and stationarity (mean and variance) are thought to be due to factors both climatic (the Great Drought of the 1930s) and human (digging of the Seaway and construction of several dams and locks during the 1950s). Despite this change in means and variance, the four series are clearly described by the generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in the St Lawrence and Lake Ontario are negatively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation over the period from 1918 to 2010. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Temporal variation of suspended sediment transport in the Koga catchment,North Western Ethiopia and environmental implications          下载免费PDF全文

Eleni Yeshaneh  Alexander Eder  Günter Blöschl 《水文研究》2014,28(24):5972-5984

Event sediment transport and yield were studied for 45 events in the upstream part of the 260 km² agricultural Koga catchment that drains to an irrigation reservoir. Discharge and turbidity data were collected over a period of more than a year, accompanied by grab sampling. Turbidity was very well correlated with the sediment concentrations from the samples (r = 0.99), which allowed us to estimate the temporal patterns of sediment concentrations within events. The hysteresis patterns between discharge and sediment concentrations were analysed to provide insight into the different sediment sources. Anticlockwise patterns are the dominant hysteresis patterns in the area, suggesting smaller contributions of suspended sediment from the river channels than from the hillslopes and agricultural areas. Complicated types of hysteresis patterns were mostly observed for long events with multiple peaks. For a given discharge, sediment yields in August and September, when the catchment was almost completely covered with vegetation, were much smaller than during the rest of the rainy season. The hysteresis patterns and timing suggest that the sediment availability from the agricultural areas and hillslopes affects sediment yields more strongly than does peak discharge. Two distinct types of sediment rating curves were observed for the season when the agricultural land was covered with vegetation and when it was not, indicating the dominating contribution of land use/cover to sediment yields in the catchment. The rate of suspended sediment transport in the area was estimated as 25.6 t year^?1 ha^?1. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献